the possibility of my own overconfidence. So let me say it now, in case there was any doubt: the prosecution of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito, culminating in last week's jury verdict - which apparently was unanimous, though it didn't need to be under Italian rules - represents nothing but one. Murder may be highly illegal, but from the standpoint of physics, it's as lawful as everything else. The initial crime scene investigation had not produced a shred of evidence that Knox had been in the room at the time of the murder. Which is exactly what happened. 1507 Words Oct 30th, 2013 7 Pages, the muder of Meredith Kercher was covered very differently from beginning to end. That may have worked in hunter-gatherer times, before more-closely-causally-linked physical evidence could hope to be evaluated. Unless, that is, Knox and Sollecito were specifically implicated by Guédé; after all, maybe Knox and Sollecito didn't actually kill the victim, but instead maybe they paid Guédé to do so, or were otherwise involved in a conspiracy with him.
The false statement makes Knox a liar, but not at all, by implication, a murderer. In my previous post, i asked readers to assign probabilities to the following propositions:.
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It has consequences, you see. Oh, and another one of those consequences of humans' not being instinctively rational? (But even they were off by a factor of at least ten!) In general, most folks went in the right direction, but, as Eliezer noted, were far too underconfident - evidently the result of an exorbitant level of trust in juries, at least in part. The Lawfulness of Murder: Inference Proceeds Backward, from Crime to Suspect We live in a lawful universe. While the police investigators had no immediate witnesses to the murder and no murder weapon, they had a blood-stained bedroom in which the coroner determined that the victim was sexually assaulted and stabbed to death. He was, nonetheless, arrested - as were Knox and her boyfriend Sollecito. He never implicated either of the two until long after the event; around the time of his apprehension, he specifically denied that Knox had been in the room.